Sometimes worldwide events impair our judgment on local issues, as we forget to view issues and trends through a local lens. Through my recent work in Latin America I have learned that the U.S. perception of Hugo Chavez is one such area. A couple of points.
Why: After the 9/11 attacks the U.S. had a tendency to view world leaders as either allies or enemies, with no middle ground. With these two choices it is clear where Chavez would have ended up. Chavez added to this through his ego and desire to use U.S. policy to expand his own influence. Both of these tendencies were compounded by our ignoring the region and failing to understand local dynamics.
Reality: My contacts tell me that most regional leaders do not view Chavez as a threat to their own governments. He is seen as having his own problems to deal with in Venezuela and I would add that he lacks the infrastructure to spread problems far and wide. Remember that Cuba had the support of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Lesson: Watch stereotypes; they can lead you to view issues like these with your mind already decided, even if you do not realize it. You may face investment risks in Latin America but I would not start with Chavez and his regional allies as the key problem.
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